The term “sleeper” has become overused in modern fantasy football discourse. It feels like the term is being used for well-known players that the community is generally not as high on. I picture a “sleeper” to be a player who can contribute to a winning roster that the community largely deems irrelevant. Later in draft season, I will reveal some of my favorite sleeper picks. But for now, let’s look at some of the most undervalued quarterbacks. Players that I believe will outperform their average draft position, and some by a wide margin. The 2026 ADP I used can be found here.
To do this, I’ve researched signal callers who outperformed their ADP over the past few seasons. I’ve looked for common trends among these players and matched these parameters to QBs in 2026. Beyond this, I’ve included some personal opinion. I’ve tried to use factual evidence to back every claim.
In 2025, some of the highest risers from ADP to final PPG included:
- Matthew Stafford
- Daniel Jones
- Jaxson Dart
- Drake Maye
- Trevor Lawrence
- Tyler Shough
- Caleb Williams
- Brock Purdy
What stood out most notably from the list were the changes in systems most players undertook.
Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence each had first-year coaches in Ben Johnson and Liam Coen. Drake Maye had a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels. Daniel Jones entered a brand new system, as it was his first year with a brand new team. The same can be said about Dart and Shough, although they were rookies. Purdy benefited from the elevation of Klay Kubiak to offensive coordinator. Stafford didn’t have a new coach. However, his low ADP can largely be attributed to his back injury that nearly put his availability to start the 2025 season in jeopardy.
Similarly, every player on this list benefited from an innovative, offense-minded coach or offensive coordinator. All guys who are considered among the elite in offensive playcalling around the league.
- Stafford -> Sean McVay
- Jones -> Shane Steichen
- Dart -> Brian Daboll
- Maye -> Josh McDaniels
- Lawrence -> Liam Coen
- Shough -> Kellen Moore
- Williams -> Ben Johnson
- Purdy -> Kyle Shanahan
This pairing of an innovative, offensive play-caller with a new QB was the most universally found aspect for QB risers. Generally, it can be assumed that these innovative coaches can help elevate QBs that the general public may otherwise be lower on.
Beyond that, several factors were common amongst most QBs. I extended my sample size to the top QB risers over the last three years. These QBs include (but are not limited to) Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Bo Nix in 2024. Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud in 2023.
Among this extended pool, players were largely divided into two categories:
- Young QBs (first or second year starting) in stable situations: 25’ Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, 24’ Daniels and Nix, 23’ Love and Stroud.
- Veteran QBs in a prove-it/contract year: 25’ Daniel Jones, 24’ Sam Darnold, 23’ Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott.
The general public tends to be skeptical and nervous about taking some young QBs, and these picks pay off at times. This is especially noticeable in situations with a stable coaching staff and a solid roster. Similarly, the general public will either “write off” QBs such as 23’ Daniel Jones and 24’ Sam Darnold, or QBs will perform well when the money is on the line, and values can be found in each situation. In both of these cases, QBs are rarely on large contracts. This enables more money to be spent elsewhere. This only improves rosters.
Other factors were less consistent, but the patterns were still notable. These included heavy offensive line investments (including 25’ Williams and Maye), and skill position draft investment in that offseason (25’ Dart and 25’ Williams). Less notable was the fact that a large number of QBs were first-round picks. They don’t lack pure talent.
Now, taking everything into account, here are some names that I project to outperform their ADP in 2026:
Tier one outperformers:
- Cam Ward (22nd QB): Ward fits several of the parameters. The Titans hired OC Brian Daboll. Despite his shortcomings in New York, Daboll undoubtedly helped massively in Josh Allen’s development and had an impact on Jaxson Dart’s. As an OC, Daboll may have the same effect he did for Allen. The Titans have also stabilized their roster this offseason. Besides a plethora of defensive signings, the Titans brought in WR Wan’Dale Robinson and some offensive lineman depth. They also drafted WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Ward falls very well into that “young QB in a stable situation” category.
- Justin Herbert (9th QB): There is less room for Herbert to move up, but I think a rise is nearly inevitable. Herbert gained OC Mike McDaniel this offseason. McDaniel struggled as a head coach, but similar to Daboll, McDaniel has had plenty of success when he has focused solely on the offense. The Chargers didn’t invest too much into new offensive linemen this offseason. However, gaining back Pro Bowl tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, who both missed a large portion of the 2025 season, has nearly the same effect as investing in the line. I wish the Chargers invested more into skill positions; however, Herbert has proved he can manage fine without the best skill players. Herbert isn’t in a contract year, but the other parameters are largely there.
- Baker Mayfield (19th QB): We do this nearly every year with Mayfield. In 2023, he started as QB 31 and finished as QB 19. In 2024, he started as QB 21 and finished as QB 3. Last year, Mayfield didn’t meet the same fate, falling from QB 7 to QB 19, but a lot of this can be attributed to a roster littered with injuries. Most importantly for Mayfield is his contract status. Mayfield has always been seen as a guy who steps up when his back is to the wall. As of now (late June), Mayfield is nowhere near a contract extension agreement with the Bucs. If this continues into the season, I expect Mayfield to look to prove his worth with a solid WR trio of Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan. Beyond that, the addition of OC Zac Robinson could do numbers for Mayfield. Remember, this is the same coach who comes from the McVay coaching tree and was instrumental in revitalizing Mayfield’s career during his short stint in Los Angeles.
Tier two outperformers (more conditional):
- C.J. Stroud (24th QB): I really like Stroud’s value here. If he stays at this cost through draft season, I would be shocked if he didn’t outperform his cost. He isn’t quite in a contract year, but he is now eligible for a contract extension. Stroud noted he feels he’s done enough to earn an extension, but if the Texans disagree, he may be in line for a “prove it” season. The Texans bolstered their abysmal offensive line this offseason through both the draft and free agency, and look to add Tank Dell back to this solid WR room. The public may have given up on Stroud, so this could be an excellent time to gain value on a QB that we have already seen perform at a high level at times.
- Kyler Murray (17th QB): This pick is truly dependent on whether Murray even wins the job. If there was complete certainty that he would start the season AND hold the job, I’d have Murray as my top pick on this list. However, those questions remain. Rushing quarterbacks are notorious for succeeding in fantasy football. Pair this with QB-Whisperer Kevin O’Connell and it looks just like some previous scenarios (Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones) in which a QB has a one-year “prove-it” deal, and succeeds. There’s no shortage of weapons in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. If Murray wins the job, he’ll be on a lot of my rosters.
- Jaxson Dart (12th QB): I don’t love Dart’s price here as the 12th quarterback off the board. However, there are some great signs that he’ll finish as a top ten QB. The hiring of John Harbaugh to coach a roster, I frankly think, is already solid. The investment in the offensive line in both the draft and free agency is great, including the selection of tackle Francis Mauigoa 10th overall in this year’s draft. Bringing in a plethora of mid-level skill players, such as Odell Beckham Jr, Calvin Austin, Isaiah Likely, as well as the return of Malik Nabers, will only help. I don’t love bringing in Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator, but it could be much worse than bringing in Patrick Mahomes’ former QB coach/OC.
Tier three outperformers (riskier):
- Patrick Mahomes (11th QB): Injury risk is baked into his cost. But if he’s able to play by week one, watch out! You’ll be getting a full year for the price of way less. The return of OC Eric Bieniemy and the addition of RB Kenneth Walker could certainly help Mahomes.
- Aaron Rodgers (28th QB): Rodgers has a very cheap cost. Would not be hard for him to outperform this cost with a new head coach, OC, and some new weapons (Michael Pittman). Don’t let the old age scare you off. He’ll want to go out strong.
- Bryce Young (26th QB): Young had a strong finish to the season last year. In the second season under HC Dave Canales, he could easily outperform his 26th QB pricetag.
Stay tuned for running backs poised to outperform their ADP!
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